Intuition in sports betting

Intuition in sports betting

Cases when instant intuitive (someone will say – rash) decisions in a certain life situation can help a person, and delicate and cold-blooded calculation – on the contrary, to hurt, is not so rare. This statement is true for sporting events.

So, well-known tennis coach Vic Braden foresaw double mistakes of players (and their probability among professional players does not exceed 9% on average) even before the racket touches the ball on the second serve. He could never explain exactly how he succeeded, but once he predicted 16 of the 17 (!) Double mistakes that occurred during one of the matches.

How does intuition relate to data arrays?

It would seem that intuition and work with large amounts of data, on the basis of which various trends and patterns are revealed, which are then used when placing bets, are concepts that are directly opposite to each other. In fact, this is not entirely true.

In the example already given, coach Braden, even though he had foreseen double errors intuitively, in fact, having seen millions of innings before, he could automatically calculate the double error by analyzing the trajectory of the player’s hand when swinging a racket, even at an unconscious level.

Similarly, professional betters, relying sometimes on intuition, in fact, based on their previous bets on a particular team, they can automatically predict the correct outcome of another event with its participation.

The role of intuition in sports betting

Any better, regardless of experience, intuitively understands that in the match of such rivals as, for example, Real Madrid and Barcelona, ​​the chances of each team to win are approximately equal, while in a duel between the same Barcelona and, say, “Villarreal”, the last chance to win is much less.

But in fact, in assessing these changes, it is more likely not about intuition, but about the analysis by our brain of the data of previous matches of these teams and a real assessment of their strength. So, there must be players whose brain, working as a supercomputer, can pre-calculate the most accurate probabilities of a particular outcome of a sporting event?

Yes, some quite successful betters actually position themselves as unsurpassed masters to intuitively evaluate probabilities. But is this really so?

The main problem with this method of placing bets is that the player needs to track a huge amount of data and bet on a lot of events in order to provide benefits over a long distance. It is as if all the same our tennis coach would have foreseen double mistakes not in one specific match he is watching, but in several at the same time. Agree that this is unrealistic.

Another limitation of the intuitive method is the inability to verify forecasts. If you place bets based on data sets, you can always evaluate the success of players using this approach. Conversely, the sample size of intuitive betters will never be so large that they can confidently say that their choice will bring benefits.

Can I bet on intuition?

It is obvious that the intuitive method when placing bets on sports has a number of significant shortcomings and limitations, and therefore it would be extremely unwise to use it constantly for any better.

At the same time, intuition must sometimes be present in sports betting, but in combination with an effective model based on processing data arrays. Imagine that you are the very Braden who simultaneously anticipates and analyzes, and then you will be guaranteed success over a long distance.