Applying Exchange Principles to Betting: The Fibonacci Sequence

Applying Exchange Principles to Betting: The Fibonacci Sequence

Among many players and not only beginners, but the so-called progressive betting strategies are also very popular. Briefly, their essence boils down to the following: each subsequent rate multiplied by its own coefficient should not only cover losses from all previous ones but also allow the better to receive a certain profit.

One of such progressive strategy is the method of placing bets using the Fibonacci sequence, which is widely used in the game on the exchange. It is expressed by the number series (0), 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, …, in which each next number is equal the sum of the previous two. Moreover, when it comes to betting on football, the essence of the strategy comes down to the following principles:

bet on a draw in matches of opponents of approximately the same level;
in case of loss, bet again on a draw, and in this case, select the bet amount according to the Fibonacci sequence, and so on until you win;
after winning go to the original amount (“1” in the number row);
choose matches where the bookmaker gives odds for a draw not lower than 2.6.
This method is based on the assumption, in principle, not without reason that it is much harder to predict a draw for bookmakers than the victory of one of the teams.

Fibonacci method in practice
In the last season (2018/19) of the German Bundesliga, 73 of 306 matches ended in a draw – that is 24%. Moreover, in all cases, the odds on a draw exceeded 2.6.

Thus, when using the Fibonacci method in theory, every fourth bet should be winning. At the initial rate of only 100 rubles, we would make a profit (taking into account the average coefficient for a draw offered by leading domestic bookmakers – 4.0) 300×4.0 – (100 + 100 + 200 + 300) = 500 rubles.

For 300-odd matches, this amount could increase in the end to 38,000 rubles – and this is only 100 rubles at the beginning.

Cons of the Fibonacci Method
However, if in fact everything would be so simple, the bookmakers would simply go broke, and the players using this strategy will become rich. Well, we’ll immediately note that many games start at the same time, and this already reduces the number of matches available for betting. However, some betters prefer to bet not on a separate championship, but on a specific team.

At the same time, prolonged drawless series could lead to the fact that bankrolls among players were significantly reduced. There are series of 20 or even more consecutive games without draws from some popular teams. That is, if only the 21st match ended in a draw, the player would have to bet 1094600 (!) Rubles on him (after all, the Fibonacci sequence is obviously a geometric progression from a mathematical point of view).

However, if such a better had not been frightened and turned off the road, the 21st bet with a coefficient of 4.0 would have fully recouped the losses of all previous ones and would have provided a good profit.

Can the Fibonacci method be mistaken for a worker?
There are two significant limitations to the betting method using the Fibonacci sequence. Firstly, as indicated above, the player must have steel nerves, and, more importantly, a large bankroll, otherwise he risks surrendering at the 20th bet and losing a significant amount.

Secondly, the betting companies themselves limit the maximum bet amount, especially for matches of minor championships where they cannot set the odds as close as possible to the real ones.

To summarize, we still do not recommend using this method as a long-term strategy when playing on bets.

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